Thursday, January 9, 2014

Light Electric Vehicles, Mobility Vehicles, E-Motorcycles and Micro-EVs (Quadricycles) 2013-2023: New Research Report

Light Electric Vehicles, Mobility Vehicles, E-Motorcycles and Micro-EVs (Quadricycles) 2013-2023

Written by the world's leading expert on LEVs, with the longest track record, this LEV report looks closely at global trends in their technology, manufacture and market drivers such as legislation. IDTechEx has added forecasts and other material. The analysis is balanced, with negative factors exposed such as several Chinese cities banning or severely restricting LEVs. The LEV industry is growing fast, with greatest strength in China today, but also clearly emerging fast in the rest of the world. Up until the last couple of years, ebike sales were concentrated in China, Japan, and the EU. In the last few years, nearly every nation has bought ebikes from China, and in some cases, the volumes are now significant. Sales will reach 130 million yearly before 2025, make it one of the world's largest industries. The report encompasses over 70 brands gives forecasts of sales numbers, unit prices and total market value for 2013-2023. Market drivers are balanced against many negative factors that are discussed in the report, and detail on standards and legislation is given.



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LEVs are one of the largest and fastest growing electric vehicle markets. A Light Electric Vehicle (LEV) is a land vehicle propelled by an electric motor that uses an energy storage device such as a battery or fuel cell, has two or three wheels, and typically weighs less than 100kg. Most LEVs are and will remain ebikes. These are Power on Demand bikes controlled with a throttle. A significant percentage of ebikes sold are scooters in that they have the driver's feet rest on a platform - they are not straddled by the driver.

Today, the LEV industry is dominated by large bicycle companies, due to their access to distribution. We explain why, in the future, these companies will face major competition from, and may be pushed aside by car, motorcycle, and car parts companies. Supply chains for motors, batteries, chassis parts, and nearly every LEV component exist in Asia, primarily in China, Taiwan, Japan, and newly emerging South Korea. We reveal where the highest profits will be obtained in future and the opportunities in components as these change with lithium-ion batteries of several generations and supercapacitors being increasingly employed, for example. The more demanding future technical requirements of users and standards are investigated.

Other vehicles closely allied to LEVS but not technically LEVs include more than electric motorcycles and mobility vehicles for the disabled covered in this report every year. This year we also include the newly successful car-like vehicles called Micro EVs that are variously classified as motorcycles, quad bikes and, in Europe, the special category quadricycles. This year Micro EV become a separate category in IDTechEx forecasts because they are now a substantial rapidly growing business. For example, the Philippines has ordered 100,000 e-trike taxis in 2013.

Adjoining sectors are also discussed such as heavy electric motorcycles and the bigger sector of mobility vehicles for the disabled, where ten year forecasts are presented. New crossover vehicles between LEVs and these sectors are presented.

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TABLE OF CONTENT

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. Forecast for numbers of LEVs sold globally to 2025
1.2. Pricing
1.3. Market value forecast
1.4. Reasons for growth
1.4.1. Competition and profitability
1.4.2. Opportunities
1.4.3. Typical requirement

2. INTRODUCTION TO LIGHT ELECTRIC VEHICLES
2.1. Definition of a light electric vehicle
2.2. E-motorcycles
2.2.1. E-bikes and e-motorcycles compared
2.2.2. Record-breaking e-motorcycles
2.2.3. Voxan claim the most powerful electric motorcycle in the world
2.2.4. Motorcycle sales in Colombia
2.3. Choices of LEV
2.3.1. Rocket drag bike USA
2.3.2. Moveo foldable scooter Hungary
2.4. The Industry of LEVs
2.4.1. Taiwan and China
2.4.2. Outside Taiwan and China
2.4.3. Too much cost cutting
2.5. Tricycles to reduce accidents and help policing
2.5.1. Twikke Europe

3. REQUIREMENTS FOR LEVS
3.1. How good does it have to be?
3.2. What retail price?

4. TYPES OF LEV AND REGULATIONS
4.1. What is an electric bicycle?
4.1.1. Pedelec
4.1.2. Power on Demand bikes and other categories
4.1.3. Electric vehicles for disabled and others
4.1.4. Power restriction
4.1.5. Notable regulations
4.2. Universal Technical Terms for Ebikes

5. MOBILITY FOR THE DISABLED - THE SECTOR WITH THE MOST COMPELLING AND ENDURING NEED
5.1. The demographic time-bomb
5.1.1. Ageing population and the dependent elderly
5.1.2. Laws make mobility easier
5.2. Types of mobility vehicle
5.2.1. Growth by new market segments
5.2.2. Interchina Industry Group China
5.2.3. Solar powered power chair in 2013
5.3. Market drivers
5.3.1. Geographical distribution
5.3.2. Needs creating new segments
5.3.3. What is driving regional differences?
5.3.4. Zhejiang R&P Industry China
5.3.5. Pride Mobility, USA
5.4. Listing of manufacturers
5.5. Market forecasts 2012-2022
5.5.1. Growth by creating new markets

6. LEV TECHNOLOGIES
6.1. Battery Technology - as currently used in LEVs, on a pack level
6.1.1. SVRLA strengths and weaknesses
6.1.2. Battery packagers
6.1.3. Battery Packs from China
6.1.4. Power management and user interface
6.1.5. Electric motor controller
6.1.6. Motor Controls:
6.1.7. Accessory features:
6.1.8. Chinese Coin Charger
6.1.9. Energy harvesting
6.1.10. User Interface
6.1.11. Real Time Data Logging and Reporting
6.1.12. Infrastructure challenges and Government incentives
6.2. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector
6.2.1. Advanced Battery Technologies (ABAT) China
6.2.2. Leyden Energy USA
6.2.3. PowerGenix USA
6.2.4. ReVolt Technologies Ltd Switzerland
6.2.5. Toshiba Japan

7. LEV STANDARDS AND COMPONENT INDUSTRIAL TRENDS
7.1. Standards Efforts
7.2. Component industry trends
7.3. LEV electric motor industry
7.4. Controller industry
7.5. Wiring harness and connectors

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8. LEV MARKETS, MARKET DRIVERS AND FORECASTS
8.1. Markets by territory
8.1.1. China
8.1.2. Japan
8.1.3. India
8.1.4. Europe
8.1.5. USA
8.1.6. Worldwide
8.2. Markets by providers
8.3. Bicycle Brands with ebikes or expected to have ebikes soon:
8.3.1. USA
8.3.2. European Bike Brands
8.3.3. Netherlands brands:
8.4. Channels of distribution
8.5. Market forecasts and drivers
8.6. Drivers of market
8.6.1. Fuel price
8.6.2. Fuel availability
8.6.3. Efficiency
8.6.4. Cost of government subsidy
8.6.5. Traffic congestion
8.6.6. Parking congestion
8.6.7. Urbanization
8.6.8. Air pollution
8.6.9. Government regulation
8.6.10. Personal responsibility
8.6.11. Total cost of ownership
8.6.12. Aging populations
8.6.13. Living in apartments
8.6.14. Negative factors
8.6.15. Bans in Malaysia and elsewhere?

9. ELECTRIC SCOOTERS
9.1. Market dynamics
9.2. Dominated by East Asia for the next decade
9.2.1. Brazil
9.2.2. China
9.2.3. Europe
9.2.4. France
9.2.5. Germany
9.2.6. India
9.2.7. Japan
9.2.8. Taiwan
9.2.9. Korea
9.3. Retro scooters
9.4. Push scooters
9.5. Folding scooters and energy harvesting

10. CAR-LIKE VEHICLES NOT HOMOLOGATED AS CARS: MICROEV, QUADRICYCLE, E TRIKE, NEV, GOLF CAR
10.1. Many names, common factors
10.2. Car-like vehicles that evade restrictions, taxes and other costs
10.3. Philippines: big new commitments to e trikes
10.4. Listing of manufacturers beyond golf cars
10.5. Toyota i-ROAD e-trike is a scooter/ MicroEV crossover
10.6. MicroEV racing cars
10.7. Golf cars
10.7.1. What is included
10.7.2. Market drivers
10.7.3. Listing of manufacturers
10.7.4. Market forecasts 2012-2023

APPENDIX 1: LISTINGS OF LEV BRANDS, OEMS, COMPONENT MAKERS

APPENDIX 2: ADDITIONAL REGULATORY SUPPORT

APPENDIX 3: IDTECHEX EV PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY


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