Description
The lighting industry is a large,
global and yet fragmented market place. The fragmentation is driven both by
technology differentiation and customer need diversity. The technologies vying
for market share include incandescent lamp, compact fluorescent lamp (CFL),
halogen lamp, light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and, most recently, organic light
emitting diodes (OLED). The target markets are also very diverse, each serving
different needs and demanding different price points. These markets include;
- Residential
- Architectural
- Hospitality
- Shop
- Industrial
- Office
- Outdoor
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OLED and LED lighting are both solid-state
technologies and offer overlapping value propositions per market segment. They
will therefore compete directly in many instances. LED lighting has come a long
way and offers a better performance than OLEDs, and that at a lower cost. OLED
lighting will therefore only gain market success if it clearly defines its
unique selling points and carves out initial market niches.
A radar chart comparing the current
attributes of OLED and LED lighting
This report is divided into two
parts: (a) technology and (b) market assessment. The first offers a
comprehensive yet detailed overview of both LED and OLED lighting, going
through fabrication processes, material compositions, technology roadmaps, and
key players. The device attributes of each technology are also critically
assessed, examining parameters such as colour warmth and controllability,
flexibility, efficiency, surface emission, lifetime, wafer size, and luminaire
design.
IDTechEx Research then develops
detailed market forecasts. Here, we estimate the market share of OLEDs
per lighting market segment, calculate the total lighting area per
sector, estimate the lumen output per segment, and forecast the
equivalent number of units sold per sector. Combining all our analysis,
we forecast the monetary value of the market at module level per market
segment.
The relative monetary contribution of each lighting market segment to the total OLED market between 2013 and 2023
We forecast the market will grow to
1.3 billion USD in 2023 and initially grow at a rapid rate of 40-50%
annually, although the initial market base in very small. We
contextualise our assessment by expressing our market forecast in units
of equivalent 60W incandescent bulbs. We assess the implications of our
market forecast for the global capital investment and production
capacity. We compare the market size to that of LEDs (including
automotive, backplane and residential) at module level. Production
capacities are compared too to further set out forecasts in prospective.
Our methodology is clearly laid out in the report, as are all our
underlying assumptions.
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